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August 26, 2016
The US Dollar is broadly weaker across the G10 space ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole this morning. The market will be watching Yellen closely for clues as to the path of monetary policy tightening in the U.S. especially following Kaplan’s comments yesterday supporting a gradual rise in rates to avoid global destabilization. Fed Fund futures are currently pricing in 32% probability of a September rate hike, up from 28% yesterday, and 57% odds of a 25bps rate hike by December up from as low as 36% at the start of the month. Front end volatility in the majors is better bid with one weeks in particular gaining as the tenor captures next both Jackson Hole and next week’s non-farm payrolls data. Still, short end vols in the Majors continue to trade below their year to date averages. Among the G10, commodity currencies/high yield currencies are marginally better performers this morning though we note most pairs trade within a narrowing range ahead of Yellen’s speech.

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